Document: Berlin wants ethnic ,,New Order"in Gulf region

Policy Paper: Toward a European Strategy for Iraq

Center for Applied Policy Research, Bertelsmann Foundation
In cooperation with:
ASPEN-Institute Italia, Rome
Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Florence
The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London
March 2003

(...) We argue that the EU should develop a comprehensive strategy for a post-Saddam Iraq based on European principles and values. (...) It can be assumed that the envisaged regime change will imply broad regional realignment (...). Any attempt to refuse to shoulder responsibility for post-Saddam Iraq will push Europe to the margin, in a region close to its backyard. (...)
 

The Transition Period

(...) taking into account the highly contingent situation, putting forward a number of guiding principles for European policy coupled with tentative policy recommendations for the EU is certainly possible.

First and foremost, Europe should seek to secure EU representation at all levels in the transition process to pursue the community's political and economic interests. (...)

International Umbrella. The EU should advocate the maintenance of international legality and the authority of the UN Security Council as the guiding forces throughout the transition process. It should promote the establishment of a Multinational Task Force under UN chairmanship as the best solution to express a transitional high authority which will offer guarantees to all conflicting Iraqi factions (...).

The international high authority should oversee the composition of the transitional government and the election of the constitutional assembly; it should then guarantee all players that the transitional government will not be allowed to turn into yet another authoritarian regime (...).

Disarmament. The quick disarmament of Iraq according to the relevant UN resolutions is a top priority for any transition process. (...)

Stability of Energy Supply: Given Iraq's vast reserves, any regime change in Baghdad is liable to have a major impact on the oil market. In the event of armed confrontation, extensive damage to oil fields and installations should be averted. In the aftermath of the crisis, the EU should advocate a quick opening of the Iraqi oil sector to international investment and participation in upgrading and expanding Iraqi oil production capacity. (...)

Transitional Justice: The various security agencies that served as tools of repression should be dismantled as quickly as possible. (...) EU members should offer their experience in managing transitional justice and submit relevant material to the Iraqi and international authorities. (...)
 

Long-term Vision and Action

a) The Domestic Dimension

(...) Given the oppressive and extremely violent record of the current Ba'th regime in Iraq any real regime change will require the enormous task of establishing a new political order from scratch. (...) Nation building in Iraq has been made difficult by the ethnic cleavage between the Arab majority and Kurdish minority, and the confessional division between Sunni and Shi'i Muslims, which coincides, to a large extent, with socio-economic inequality. (...)
 

The Vision

Iraq should be preserved as a single, independent state, and its territorial integrity should be maintained. The geographical distribution of natural resources makes it very unlikely that all of the major groups would agree to a partition of the country. (...) Power in Iraq should be dispersed, thereby creating a system of checks and balances that prevents the re-establishment of a strong, centralised authoritarian rule. A most important tool to guarantee the sustainability of several power centres is the constitutionally guaranteed distribution of fixed shares of oil revenues to institutions other than the central government. Many opposition groups advocate the establishment of a federal system to ensure a certain level of autonomy for minorities and the dispersion of central power. (...) The Kurdish autonomy zone in the North should function as a nucleus for a federal system with fiscal and legislative autonomy. (...) The federal dispersion of power should be combined with cultural autonomy for ethnic minorities and decentralised decision-making. The international high authority shall remain in place with no other role than to guarantee the stability of the new constitutional setup until a new federal order becomes consolidated and proves its viability. (...) Minority representation has to be ensured and accordingly, the special character of tribal social relations has to be taken into account (e.g., by granting broad local autonomy and by establishing a bicameral system with an ,,upper house"for tribal shuyukh, religious figures and other notables and leading professionals). (...)
 

EU Action

The EU should:

- Offer to share European experience in designing new political institutions and making them work. (...)

- Offer support for reform of the legal and law-enforcement system of Iraq. (...)

- Foster the re-construction of Iraqi civil society by supporting non-governmental organisations (...).
 

b) The Regional Dimension

(...)

The Vision

Security Framework. Iraq (and the other states of the Mashreq) should be integrated progressively into a Gulf regional security framework that encompasses Iran, Yemen and the GCC countries. (...) To make this principle operative, the idea of a Gulf Conference for Security and Co-operation (GCSC) should be considered. This organisation should include all the Gulf states and be devolved into subject-specific working groups on issues like arms control, resolution of territorial disputes, economic co-operation, energy and water. (...) Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey should be given associate status in the conference, and full participant status in the relevant working groups. The EU should function along with the US, Russia and the UN Secretariat as a facilitator for the establishment of this framework and as participant of its proceedings.

Regional Integration. The artificial division of the Mashreq region in several independent states - mostly with shaky or non-existent historical legitimacy - following the Sanremo conference of 1920 has failed to generate a stable regional order. (...) Peace and stability in the region require the progressive overcoming of the Sanremo (...). All countries and people of the region must benefit from the reconstruction of Iraq and its reintegration in the international community, not view the hoped-for success of a new Iraqi political order as a potential threat to themselves. This requires creation of strong regional institutions, including a mechanism of fiscal solidarity that will allow some regional redistribution of the oil revenue. (...) Regional integration should also establish and guarantee the freedom of movement, for good and services, for capital and for individuals seeking employment. Physical and administrative barriers within the region must be dismantled rapidly to create a new perspective and hope among all the people of the region. (...)

Israeli-Arab conflict. Any credible engagement of the EU in Iraq will require progress in the festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The members of the ,,Quartet"(US, EU, Russia and UN) should consider convening a broad international conference (Madrid II) in the immediate aftermath of the crisis to encourage the conflicting parties to accept a solution (...). The implementation of any agreement will have to be linked to a fixed timetable and be observed by an international force. (...)
 

EU-Action

The EU should:

- Establish an intensive dialogue on the future of Iraq with Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan and the GCC member countries. The EU is uniquely well positioned to engage all these regional actors (...).

- Function along with the US and Russia as a facilitator for the establishment of a multilateral security framework in the Gulf region and as an observer of its proceedings. The EU should require member countries to condition future sales of weapons systems to the region on the development of an EU-wide approach to Gulf security. (...)

- Support schemes for regional economic co-operation and offer its broad expertise in this realm. (...)

- Establish positive conditionality linking all types of financial aid and other assistance offered to regional partners to progress in democratisation and human rights. (...)

- Press for a broad regional conference (...) to address regional issues and implement a final settlement to the Arab-Israeli conflict. (...)
 

Source:
Policy Paper: Toward a European Strategy for Iraq; www.cap.uni-muenchen.de