Dramatic Disintegration
BERLIN/TASHKENT/MOSCOW (german-foreign-policy.com) - Foreign policy experts in Berlin no longer exclude an entire takeover of the Russian public sector by western interests. Russia is presently experiencing "a second dramatic disintegration of its former historical territorial realm and sphere of influence in the CIS," is how it was formulated at the Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP - German Council on Foreign Relations). This Berlin based organization, closely linked to the German Foreign Ministry. Following the bitter defeats in Georgia, Moldavia and the Ukraine, the Kremlin is now fighting to maintain its status in Uzbekistan. That country, standing under enormous pressure from western interests, has intensified its military cooperation with Moscow, in order to thwart attempts at subversion emanating from Berlin, Brussels and Washington. The Kremlin will not be able to win the conflicts that can also spread, within a year's time, to Kazakhstan and Belarus, and must seek therefore "an integration with the west," is how the situation is appraised in the German capital.
Moscow's efforts to "integrate the former Soviet republics in a new alliance with Russia" is a failure, writes the expert in Russian affairs, Alexander Rahr in a paper recently published by the DGAP. 1)According to Rahr's appraisal, the recently opened Baku-Tbilissi-Ceyhan pipeline, has crushed the Russian pipeline monopoly "in the Caspian Area." The Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan is broken, the anti-Moscow alliance, GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldavia), destined to replace the CIS, is gaining ground. According to news agency reports, the foreign ministries of the Ukraine and Georgia are preparing a memorandum, that is to lay the foundation for their "Euro-Atlantic" cooperation. The news report confirmed NATO’s constant advance leading up to the Russian borders. Given the fact that the Baltic states and Romania are considering applying for membership in GUAM and Poland seeks close cooperation with this international alliance, a confrontational encirclement of the Russian mainland is anticipated.
Persistent
Following a series of bitter setbacks in several former Soviet republics, Moscow is struggling to maintain its influence in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan, which controls an important portion of the Central Asian energy resources, recently withdrew from the anti-Russian alliance, GUAM. The West is "interested in us becoming NATO members" explained the Uzbek President, Islam Karimow, "that alliance is edging its way persistently toward the Transcaucasian (...) and seeks to strengthen its presence in Central Asia." 2)This is not in the interest of his country, declares the Uzbek president, who had allowed Berlin and Washington to build military bases, and in so doing, has already largely fulfilled their wishes.
Military Exercises
Berlin and the EU are using the uprisings, which occurred in the East of the country (Andijan region) in May 2005, to apply pressure to Uzbekistan and demand an international investigation into the conflict. Already by mid-June, Brussels threatened sanctions if the Uzbek government refused to satisfy the German-European demands. Tashkent reacted to this threat with a military-political rapprochement to Moscow. At the end of June, both countries announced their intentions to carry out joint military exercises. According to press accounts, Uzbekistan offered Russia, for the case of a further intensification of the threatening situation, up to ten air force bases on its territory. On the other hand, Tashkent, already a few months ago, restricted Washington's access to the US military accommodations in Karshi-Khanabad, and according to news reports, it is no longer excluded that even more far-reaching modifications may be made in the agreement concerning the military bases, an agreement due to remain in effect for 25 years.
"No longer political unity"
The intensification of the power struggle in Central Asia is being accompanied by reflections concerning the feasibility of also supporting coup d'état movements in Kazakhstan, and Belarus. 3)"In view of the elections in 2006, the authoritarian rulers in both countries, have their backs to the wall," according to the DGAP. The CIS "no longer represents a political unity" the German think tank also writes: "The member states are so divided that they can find no common denominator in questions of security." 4)Moscow must therefore be prepared to submit itself to accepting the western concept ("Common European House"): "There are voices, that are even advising Russia, to seek integration into the west." This formulation describes a possible total takeover of the Russian public sector and the the Kremlin controlled capital stocks. This would be done through buyers from NATO regions, offering the administration in Moscow a share.
Winner
Whereas the three powers are largely working in together in the power struggles on the periphery of Russia, serious dissention are anticipated between the EU and the USA, when it becomes a question of the energy resources located in the Russian heartland. The DGAP paper declares the EU to be the winner in this rivalry. Through the re-nationalization of strategically important industries, it will be "those European enterprises, with a tradition in Russia of doing business through the state" who will be the "winners". "Losing out above all, will be those US companies, that prematurely banked on the private oligarchy sector in Russia." The author of the DGAP paper judges that the energy dialogue between Russia and the USA "is suspended, the dialogue, on the other hand, with Germany, France and Italy, as well as with China and Japan is gaining in quality." 5)
1) Wohin steuert Putin Russland?; GUS-Barometer Nr. 38 (Juli 2005)
2) Zusammenfassung: Aktion in Andischan wurde außerhalb Usbekistans sehr lange vorbereitet; RIA Nowosti 29.06.2005
3) Usbekistan bereit, Präsenz russischer Militärs auf seinem Territorium zu gestatten; russland.ru 30.06.2005
4), 5) Wohin steuert Putin Russland?; GUS-Barometer Nr. 38 (Juli 2005)
Sources:
EU Threatens Sanctions against Uzbekistan; RFE/RL Newsline 14.06.2005
U.S. Military Confirms Limitations on Base in Uzbekistan; RFE/RL Newsline 16.06.2005
Vorbereitung zu ersten russisch-usbekischen Militärübungen abgeschlossen; RIA Nowosti 29.06.2005
