Through the Back Door

BERLIN/BRUSSELS/LONDON (Own Report) In preparation for the EU summit on Tuesday 22 March, German foreign policy is adapting and preparing options for the formation of a German-French ,,European Core"in the event of a possible failure of the European constitution. It is feared that the constitution may be rejected in Great Britain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Denmark. A heavy-weight political study from sources close to the German foreign office says that these countries must reckon with ,,massive pressure"if their referendums do not yield the desired result. The actual working paper proposes that there should be measures to ,,bring voters to their senses"before a second referendum. It recommends changing valid electoral laws in neighbouring EU states to force the acceptance of the constitutional treaty. If, in spite of this, the constitution were to founder, the possibility remained for ,,cooperation outside the treaties"in security and defence policy - in particular a military central office for armaments ( ,,a defence agency").

The Centre for Applied Policy Research (CAP) describes the coming referendums as ,,an explosive charge"which could render the constitutional treaty obsolete. 1)The Centre's paper notes that opinion polls in Great Britain ,,to date"show a clear ,,No"to the EU constitution and that ,,a negative vote in France cannot be excluded".

Tactics

In Poland and the Czech Republic, where even parliamentary majorities for the constitution are uncertain, ,,pressure could be brought to bear by positive votes in other countries". This view takes into account the elections which must take place in the Czech Republic at the latest in June 2006 and in Poland not before the Autumn of this year. A further risk assessment from circles close to the German foreign office maintains that it is ,,a carefully calculated tactic (...) to delay the referendum as long as possible". 2)The German planners suggest additional possibilities of targetted interventions in the electoral law of neighbouring states. For example, the requirement in Poland for a quorum of 50% participation by voters for a valid referendum could be set aside. In this way, occurrences such as the recent elections to the EU parliament (Polish participation 20.8%) or the constitutional referendum in Spain (Voter participation 42%) should then have no undesirable effects. 3)

Political Marketing

As a further possibility, it is suggested that failed referendums should be repeated. According to the authors in Berlin, this should be preceded by a ,,political marketing"campaign. They recommend a combined operation for an agreeable outcome ,,by all heads of government from countries which have already ratified". They should ,,campaign in the target country". 4)It is acknowledged throughout by the the German planners that such measures would turn the referendums into a manipulative advertising enterprise. They take into account that ,,political marketing could be seen by citizens as an affront to the will of voters and lead to loss of votes for the ruling party at the next election".

The Core of Europe

,,Plan B"foresees that recalcitrant populations which do not vote for the EU constitution at the second attempt ,,will be placed under such extreme pressure"that their governments will be compelled to leave the EU, ,,although there are not the slightest legal grounds for this". Although the constitutional treaty would be totally void and rejected according to the current legal position, the remaining EU members could nonetheless continue to act ,,through the back door of standing orders". This would permit the reinstatement of the constitutional treaty bit by bit. Additionally, according to ,,Plan B", cooperation could be agreed among the group of ratifying states outside the scope of the constitution - for example in military matters. As far as the Berlin strategists are concerned, it is beyond doubt that the states which would belong to this group of rearming countries are Germany, which would take over the leadership (most likely together with France) in a ,,two speed Europe". The key conclusion of ,,Plan B"is therefore that ,,Core Europe"must be seen ,,as a serious option"for German foreign policy.

1) Bettina Thalmaier: Optionen für einen Plan B im Falle des Scheiterns der Ratifikation des Verfassungsvertrages. CAP Working Paper, März 2005
2) Andreas Maurer et al.: Ratifikationsverfahren zum EU-Verfassungsvertrag. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, März 2005
3) Kurt Klotzle: Constitutional Referendum in Poland: Can the Popular Will Overcome Party Power Struggles? CAP News 14.03.2005
4) Bettina Thalmaier: Optionen für einen Plan B im Falle des Scheiterns der Ratifikation des Verfassungsvertrages. CAP Working Paper, März 2005


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