,,Downfall or ascent to world power"


MUNICH A German strategy paper on the future of the European Union foresees the disintegration of the EU and a ,,return to the power politics of former days"if the Berlin-driven ,,ascent of Europe to global power"is hindered by the ,,blockade mentality"of some members. The politically influential authors contrast the threat of this scenario against that of a ,,Superpower Europe"which will reach ,,power parity"with the USA and thereby achieve its rightful ,,objective, world-power potential".

,,Downfall or ascent to world power"are the alternatives placed before the EU member states by the Centre for Applied Policy Research (CAP), an influential German think tank which co-operates closely with the German Foreign Office. 1)The German political advisers assert that the railway points to the future should be reset in view of the dissension within the EU over the Iraq war. The Union and its member states must now define themselves new as a ,,future-orientated community for success"which was concerned at ,,fundamental attacks on the substance of European integration".

,,Power politics of bygone days"

If the attempt to ,,europeanise"national foreign and security policies failed, a ,,renationalisation"would follow. In the first of the future scenarios offered in the German paper, relationships between European states would be affected by ,,a marked return to the power politics of bygone days". The dominant influence of the USA in Europea would experience a renaissance. If the ,,blockade mentality"of some members hindered the ,,ascent of Europe to global power"then a group of member states could combine together in a ,,closed European nucleus"outside the framework of the EU treaties - thus the next threat. The strategic baselines would be agreed by the most powerful member states ,,which have at their disposal the necessary military capabilities and structures as well as the political will when necessary to commit military emphasis to their world-wide interests". The rest of the EU would then degrade into a ,,de luxe free trade area"without capability in political matters.

,,Superpower Europe"

A development after the fashion of the last few decades and an ,,Avant Garde"inside the EU does not appear sufficient to the German world-power strategists ,,to activate the world-power potential of 500 million people": Only in the scenario of ,,Superpower Europe will Great Europe achieve its rightful world-power potential". Therefore it followed that the ,,final goal of a European state"should be pursued. All central political competences (interior, foreign policy, defence, social and economic policies) must be communitised. The EU, already developing in the direction of ,,Superpower Europe", would always be capable of accepting new members. Thus it would be ,,globally the only system which could continually expand its territory". Then the great political and economic power potential of the EU would achieve parity with the USA.

,,Unrestricted means of international power politics"

In particular the ,,building up of United Strategic Armed Forces (VESS) which could use the nuclear weapons capability of France and Britain under a unified European High Command", would alter the international role of the EU - thus the German vision. This would lead to ,,power parity with the USA". ,,Superpower Europe is finally saying goodbye to the idea of a civil power and is acquiring without restriction the means of international Great Power policy".

1) See also earlier articles Berlin wants ethnic ,,New Order"in Gulf regionand The will to world power

See also earlier article German Armed Forces wants ,,influence over nuclear bombs"

Centrum fuer angewandte Politikforschung (CAP) May 2003: Europas Zukunft; www.cap.uni-muenchen.de