BAMAKO/NIAMEY/BERLIN (own report) – German government advisors are intensifying their debate on adjustments to Germany’s policy for gaining influence in the Sahel. In reference to the fact that in Central Sahel nations coup governments are in power, a recent study by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) proposes that in the future, it must be “more clearly defined” which regional forces will be considered “legitimate.” According to the authors, already in the past, Berlin had opted for “cooperation with the civilian population,” while Paris had favored “harsh punishment of the junta” in Mali and in Niger. The debate continues, while in the Sahel it is speculated that the recent attacks by the Tuareq separatists on Malian soldiers and Russian militia cannot be solely the work of pro-al Qaeda jihadis, but are possibly carried out also with French involvement. In Niger, an opposition group intent on overthrowing the government by force, was founded in Paris. At the same time, the Ukrainian intelligence service declared that it had participated in last week’s Tuareg attack on Malian and Russian targets. Read more

BRUSSELS/BERLIN (own report) - The European People's Party (EPP), led by a CSU politician, has redefined its “cordon sanitaire” against the radical right. This “firewall” has been shifted way further right in the wake of the recent elections to the European Parliament. Parties of the extreme right are, for the first time, to be regarded as “cooperation partners”. On Wednesday, three parliamentarians from the ultra-right ECR Group (European Conservatives and Reformists) were elected with votes from EPP MEPs to the Bureau of the European Parliament, a body with important budgetary and administrative powers. The ECR Group includes far-right parties with origins in neo-fascism such as the Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) and the Sweden Democrats. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), who had just suffered a major defeat in court over her handling of vaccine contracts, managed to secure her re-election yesterday thanks in part to a deal with the FdI before the vote. In the freshly elected European Parliament, far-right parties make up both the third-largest group of MEPs, the Patriots for Europe (PfE), and the fourth-largest group, the ECR. The PfE parties have a prime minister (Hungary) in their ranks, along with two current and two former governing parties of member states. The extreme right in the European Parliament is clearly in a stronger position than ever before. Read more

BERLIN (own report) - Amnesty International has published a report that levels serious accusations at twenty-one European countries, not least Germany. The allegations concern restrictions being imposed on the right to protest. The report finds that peaceful protesters in Germany and other countries are increasingly being “stigmatised, criminalised and attacked”. Amnesty has documented cases of severe police violence. One example cited is the heavy-handed treatment of participants on a demonstration in Frankfurt am Main. Anyone who engages in civil disobedience in Germany can, according to the report, now expect to be defamed as a “terrorist” or even designated a “foreign agent”. It is often senior politicians who are quick to call for intolerance. Thus, Amnesty highlights the harsh repression to which anyone protesting against the Gaza war has been subjected. In creating an atmosphere of intimidaton, state authorities not only perpetuate “stigmatising and discriminatory stereotypes” for ethnic and religious minorities but also show through their actions an “institutionalised racism” that “targets Arabs and Muslims”. The Amnesty report is being published at a time when dissenting opinions are increasingly forced to the margins of German society. Critics are warning of a dangerous turn to authoritarianism. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) – Responding to the unexpected outcome of the French parliamentary elections, influential German politicians predict a weakening of France and the European Union. In the second round of elections, held yesterday and dominated by tactical voting, none of the three major blocs won an absolute majority. Shortly after the polling stations closed, leading politicians from the Conservatives and the liberal-conservative presidential bloc Ensemble were quick to speak out against forming a coalition government with the left wing of the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP). They are shocked by the strong showing of La France insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed). But without a leftist component, no governing coalition can be envisaged for the time being. German foreign policy experts are warning that France faces “paralysis and division”; it will be incapable of decisive action. Macron could, they fear, even drag “the whole of Europe into crisis”. Germany must, some claim, now take more “responsibility for leadership in Europe”. CDU leader Friedrich Merz had previously said Berlin should cooperate with a future French government even under the Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement national (RN, National Rally). The fact that the second round of voting leaves the RN without a mandate to form a government in Paris now renders such calls irrelevant. Yet this position taken by the opposition in Berlin does show how far politicians will go in declaring once shunned forces on the far right to be potential coalition partners. Read more

BERLIN/KABUL (own report) – Calls are being voiced in Berlin for a rethink on Germany’s Afghanistan policy. Should diplomats be redeployed to Kabul? The background to these discussions is the growing number of countries now engaging in limited cooperation with the ruling Taliban. Russia and China have engaged with Afghanistan for some time. Moscow invited Taliban representatives to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on several occasions. Beijing, which is planning extensive extraction projects for raw materials in Afghanistan, accredited a Taliban ambassador at the beginning of the year. India has also shown some interest in cooperation, while Saudi Arabia plans to open an embassy in Kabul. The motivation for closer relations is not only security concerns but also geostrategic interests. Berlin now fears it approach may be too little, too late. Meanwhile, and in sharp contrast, notorious Afghan warlords have been approaching the West for help to overthrow the Taliban. At the weekend, militia leader Ahmad Massoud, whose National Resistance Front (NRF) is waging a guerrilla war against the Taliban, said that his fighters lacked the “resources and support” given to Ukraine. The Taliban could, he insists, be defeated. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) – Advisors to the German government have pointed to a link between Germany’s dominance in the EU and the rise of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in France. The RN has regularly warned that Germany wants to “achieve military dominance along with its economic dominance” and is therefore “deliberately weakening French positions.” This French response is highlighted in a policy paper by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). And the line of argument is catching on. Immediately before yesterday’s first round of voting in France’s snap parliamentary election, a leading RN strategist explained to the German public how his party would govern in the event of an election victory. A “break with the EU” should, he said, be avoided. The RN would strive for a “pragmatic” foreign policy and would not pursue a unilateral economic policy. However, the EU was, he argued, undergoing a wave of “nationalist revival”. The RN has now emerged as the strongest force in the first round of voting. The conservative Les Républicains expressly reject any election recommendations to stop the RN in the run-off. Meanwhile, the coalition around the presidential party Renaissance will, for its part, not enable candidates from the left-wing party La France insoumise (LFI, a key partner in the New Popular Front) to defeat the RN. Read more