Combat in different areas of Afghanistan, over the past weekend alone, accounted for more than 70 people killed. Ten days earlier various NATO facilities and units were targets of a series of attacks, in which several people died and numerous others, including German soldiers, were injured. An increase in attacks and combat activity is to be expected, particularly since Afghan militias habitually engage and/or expand their combat activity after the thaw. In March the Taliban announced a spring offensive. The incidence of suicide attacks has also increased in the meantime. Last week Bernhard Gertz, chairman of the German Armed Forces Federation, esteemed that he does not have "the impression", that the west, in its attempt to isolate the rebels, "has really been successful". "Nowhere in Afghanistan" is there a certitude, "that the German Armed Forces can carry out their missions without the danger of attacks."[1]

Charity organizations also report an increase in repelling reactions, on the part of the Afghan population. "The pressure continues to mount", is how, for instance, Caritas international described the situation of western aide workers, some of whom must rely on Bodyguards, around the clock, to protect them from being kidnapped by rebels.[2] Occasionally the tension mounts dramatically. "We urgently recommend the NGO Community in Kabul to remain in their accommodations and/or offices, until further notice", advised a private security firm in a "Security Mail" in the early afternoon of February 10, when the population of Kabul protested against anti-Islamic caricatures in European journals.[3] Reason for the warning were rumors, that radical forces had called for attacks on assistants of the occupation forces. The security firm issued the 'all-clear' signal only in late afternoon, but reported a tense situation in Herat: "local security forces were able to disperse the crowds, between 16:30 and 17:00 o'clock with rifle shots" it is explained in another "Security Mail", on hand at german-foreign-policy.com. The sequence of events on February 10 is not exceptional to Kabul.

Despite the mounting tensions, German business circles strive to enhance their profit chances in the Afghan theater of conflict. Billions are to be spent in the next few years for the reconstruction, which spurs international competition for the lucrative contracts.[4] "Whoever gets there early enough, can still get another piece of the pie", is how the Federal Association of German Industry (BDI) expressed it to german-foreign-policy.com. The BDI will send a business delegation to Kabul in May, that will be led by the parliamentary state secretary of the Economic Ministry, Hartmut Schauerte. The objective is an investor's conference, where also powerful US rivals are expected to attend. The German businesses, often using Afghan employees or Eastern European cheap labor to execute their business in the danger zones [5], consider the risks for the four-day Kabul journey to be within bounds. "We are not exactly happy about the development, but it does not prohibit us from continuing", explained the BDI to german-foreign-policy.com.

With the aggravation of the security situation and the sharpening of the economic competition, the differences between western occupation powers is simultaneously also increasing. German government advisors assume that Washington will use its influence on President Hamid Karzai to obtain a predominating position in Kabul. Under pressure from Karzai and the US Ambassador in Kabul, not parties, but individuals were elected in the parliamentary elections last September. The government in Kabul is therefore extremely fragmented and hardly capable of effectively functioning, write the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). In future conflicts the president can therefore use "his superior authority (...) in accordance with tradition", writes the advisors to the government in Berlin: "in this case, the resulting political system would develop toward an autocracy" - under the control of the rivals in Washington.[6]

In contrast to this perspective, Berlin is banking on the Afghan foreign ministry. It has been rumored that the recently dismissed foreign minister, entertained a close relationship with Germany. Since the winter 1994, Abdullah Abdullah maintained "close contacts to the BND, from a base in Munich," the secret service expert, Erich Schmidt Eenboom reported to german-foreign-policy.com already two years ago. According to Schmidt Eenboom, Abdullah served as an "influence agent, if not as a BND agent".[7] The new Foreign Minister, Rangin Dadfar Spanta, in office since March, has spent more than 20 years of his life in Germany and is still today a member of the former government coalition party Alliance 90/The Greens. After initial protests against the western war and occupation policies, he now endorses a "more active role" of Germany in Afghanistan.[8] Dadfar Spanta is active in government circles in Kabul, already since January 2005, first as a foreign policy advisor to the Afghan president. As german-foreign-policy.com has learned from Alliance 90/The Greens, the party "still [maintains] regular contact to him".